Tuesday, September 28, 2004

Best Books

A while ago my friend and Renowned Author Tim was perusing my stacks of books and he asked me if I had ever assembled a “best books” list. Well Tim, here’s the list. These are the books that made the biggest impression on me:

Best Non-Fiction:
1) Gwynne Dyer – War.
2) Garrett Hardin – Filters Against Folly.
3) Richard Dawkins – The Selfish Gene.
4) Jared Diamond – Guns, Germs and Steel.
5) Jonathan Weiner – the Beak of the Finch.
6) Marjorie Shostak – Nisa.
7) James Lovelock – Gaia.
8) Richard Feynmann – QED.
9) Douglas Hofstadter – Godel, Escher, Bach.
10) Darrell Huff – How to Lie with Statistics.
11) Edward Tufte – The Visual Display of Quantitative Information.
12) Donald Norman – The Design of Everyday Things.

Best Fiction:
1) Charles Yates Harrison – Generals Die in Bed.
2) George Orwell – 1984.
3) JRR Tolkien - Lord of the Rings.
4) Frank Herbert – Dune.
5) Douglas Adams – The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy.
6) Larry Niven – Ringworld.

Best Magazine Articles: Since these are not trivial to find, I have added links.
1) Michael Malone – Coins of the Realm (West Magazine, 11/06/1988).
---> Link: http://www.reedsresearch.com/Scribblings/HUMOR/Coins.html
2) Jared Diamond – The Worst Mistake in the History of the Human Race (Discover, May 1987).
---> Link: http://www.agron.iastate.edu/courses/agron342/diamondmistake.html

And the one that had the biggest impact is one I no longer remember… my Dad bought it when I was around…10? It was written by a Jewish doctor imprisoned in Auschwitz, who survived by becoming one of the guys who helped move people and bodies around, I forgot what they were called. If I recall correctly, which I probably don’t, it was a red book, with just the title “Auschwitz” in large letters on the cover. To this day I am amazed, and grateful, that he let me read THAT book, at THAT age. There are no words to describe the impact that one book had on me.

If only I could find it again. There are LOTS of people who could use a reading of that book.

Monday, September 27, 2004

YOU are a REPUBLICAN!

At the Republican National Convention, the “Governator”, in fact the Governor of my sorry state, Arnold Schwarzneggar, gave a terrific speech. While the funniest part was the bit about how Richard Nixon inspired him to become a Republican (that ought to tell you everything you need to know), the best part of the speech was the “You are a Republican” section. Absolutely terrific speechifyin’. And complete bullshit. I mean REALLY... I know the RNC wanted to make the Party of Christian Jihadists seem palatable to Middle America, but he was either making that shit up or simply lives on another planet (HEY! No California comments, now!).

Here’s my take on what he should have said, if you judge the Republican party by it’s actions, not it's words:

If you believe that the Party that denies: gays the right to marry, women the right to abortion, everyone access to contraception, welfare for the poor and/or unemployed, protection for the environment, the right of all citizens to a decent education and health care for the uninsured…
Is the party of COMPASSION…
Then YOU are a REPUBLICAN!

If you believe that an Administration that: mandates Christian prayer in schools, promotes creationism as science, pays Christian missionaries to run essential Government social services, mandates what modern medical procedures and medical research should be legal based on 2000 year old biblical references…
Is upholding the SEPARATION OF CHURCH AND STATE…
Then YOU are a REPUBLICAN!

If you believe that an Administration that wants to drill for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge…
Is a steward of the ENVIRONMENT…
Then YOU are a REPUBLICAN!

If you believe that a Vice President, who was the CEO of a giant OIL CONGLOMERATE, negotiates an energy agreement with Coal, Oil and Nuclear energy companies in COMPLETE SECRECY…
Is acting in the PUBLIC interest…
Then YOU are a REPUBLICAN!

If you believe that cutting taxes and increasing Military spending to the point of creating the largest Federal Deficit in history
Is FISCALLY CONSERVATIVE…
Then YOU are a REPUBLICAN!

If you believe that giving the wealthiest 1% of Americans tax cuts worth MILLIONS
But only giving the other 99% less than $600 each…
Is a MIDDLE CLASS TAX CUT…
Then YOU are a REPUBLICAN!

If you believe that Iraq HAD to be invaded n order to liberate the Iraqi people from an “Evil Dictator”, but that there is no need to invade Sudan, North Korea, Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Myanmar, Yemen, Libya, Nigeria, Somalia, Zimbabwe, Pakistan, Chechnya, Georgia, Uzbekistan,…
Is a CONSISTENT FOREIGN POLICY…
Then YOU are a REPUBLICAN!

If you believe that Pakistan, a nuclear-armed military dictatorship, active supporter of terrorists, former ally and supporter of the Taliban, recruiting ground for Islamic extremists, supplier of nuclear materials to the world and current home of Bin Laden…
Is a RELIABLE ALLY in the War on Terrorism…
Then YOU are a REPUBLICAN!

If you believe that Saudi Arabia, a monarchist kleptocracy (didn’t we overthrow ours over 200 years ago?), homeland of Bin Laden and most of the 9-11 hijackers, primary source of money for Al Qaida, origin and activist promoter of rabid Islamic extremist Wahabbism, source and funder of a worldwide network of Madras’ used to train Islamic extremists…
Is a source of STABILITY in the Middle East…
Then YOU are a REPUBLICAN!

If you believe that Saddam Hussein had chemical, biological and very nearly nuclear weapons and was an EMINENT threat to the safety of America…
Despite the fact that NOTHING was ever found…
Then YOU are a REPUBLICAN!

If you believe that an Administration that starts wars on false pretenses; bases military strategy on the advice of academic think-tank ideologues; ignores the advice of the General Staff; has to call up reservists, deny military personnel the right to quit when their service has completed and relies on private armies of mercenaries because they underestimated the manpower requirements; keeps asking for more money because they miscalculated the cost of the war; and declares “Mission Accomplished” before 90% of the casualties have occurred…
Has demonstrated competent MILITARY LEADERSHIP…
Then YOU are a REPUBLICAN!

If you believe that a President who has an extra-marital affair an intern is a man of MORAL WEAKNESS and should have been IMPEACHED…
But a President who starts a WAR by LYING to the American Public is a man of MORAL CONVICTION and should be RE-ELECTED…
Then YOU are a REPUBLICAN!

And if you believe that the current men and woman in the White House are decent, moral, courageous servants of the American Public, working for Justice, Freedom and Democracy throughout the World…
Then YOU are a FOOL.

Friday, September 24, 2004

Kilgore's Law

Y'know, I just HAVE to put this Out There.

I have a colleague at work who is a really cool guy. Real sharp; diligent, thorough experimentalist, knows a TON of stuff, gets stuff done. I don't exactly remember when or how this came up, which is extremely unfortunate from a story-telling standpoint, so I'll just have to cut this short and get to the point... sort of. For brevity I'll refer to the hero of our story as "The Hero of Our Story", or THOS for short.

No doubt in the midst of solving some ultra-urgent-end-of-universe-we're-all-gonna-die crisis (translation: normal customer request), THOS ran an experiment that produced the desired result. Just what was expected, just the right result to solve the Customer's problem. Being a conscientious, upstanding, respectable engineer, THOS did what any such stalwart member of the technical community would do and repeated the test to make sure it was reproducible.

Oooooo.... BIG mistake. Of course he didn't get the same result. In fact, the result completely contradicted the first result. Totally contrary to expectation, a looming disaster if the Customer actually got the same result. Of course he had no time to come up with another solution. Of course some management dork (probably me, come to think of it) said "Ship it!" and off the solution went, much to the horror of THOS.

Of course it worked. Of course the Customer was happy. And of course everyone lived happily ever after... well, not actually, but at least that particular problem was off the table. The point is that THOS discovered what we came to call "Kilgore's Law", much to the amusement of THOS. This has become part of the lexicon at my company, and it gets used a LOT, in a somewhat disturbing variety of situations. There's so many potential applications for this that I'll leave it "as an exercise for the reader" to think up potential uses. Feel free to post 'em.

So here it is, in all its simple Power and Beauty:

Kilgore's Law:

Never repeat a successful experiment.


For the editor's of Bartlett's Famous Quotations, a complete attribution is available upon request and presentation of suitably convincing identification.

First Post

My name is Paul, and I have escaped from the Box.

For the last 14 years I have lived in a small, insular, highly competitive community of over-achieving Techno-Nerds. Now, these days, this sort of thing is getting pretty common, but this is a special case. This community is the Semiconductor Capital Equipment industry. This is THE driving force behind all modern electronics. If I were to coin a tag line for the industry it would be something like "We make the tools that build the Information Age". Anything with semiconductors in it owes its existence to equipment and processes created by SCE companies. And these days, when people say "Technology", they mean stuff with semiconductors in it.

This is the Box.

The main thing that makes this business unusual, even in a world filled with Technology companies, is that it's a very arcane business for its size (hundreds of billions of dollars a year). Think software is arcane? Maybe, but I bet you know what it is, I bet you know what its for, I bet a lot of you even know how it works and can maybe even write your own code. Know what an HDP CVD tool is? Know what it does? Know how it works? Yet hundreds of millions of dollars worth of them are sold every year. I know this sounds arrogant, but that's not the intent. The point is that it's a technology removed by at least 3 layers from everyday experience. The SCE business is the equivalent in Technology to the molten core of the Earth - energetic and powerful, invisibly influencing everything at the surface, yet remote from daily experience.

But its exciting to live in the Molten Core of the Revolution. The technology is complex and multidisciplinary, the new stuff comes straight from the "bleeding edge" of technology, the industry is global and 24/7. The people in it are talented and driven; adrenaline junkies one and all. The Molten Core generates a lot of Energy that can be used to accomplish great things, unfortunately it also generates a lot of Heat that can burn you to a crisp.

I claim my SCE lineage proudly - membership in this Clan comes at no small cost; to your personal life, your health, sometimes your sanity. Business is ruthlessly competitive and violently cyclical (digital, in fact - on and off are the only states), product life cycles are "nasty, brutish and short", successes are few but immensely profitable, failures are common and immensely expensive. In down cycles you slave feverishly for every sale and to develop new products for the next up-turn. In the up-turn you work feverishly to keep up with the explosive growth, and to wring out the bugs in all the new products you developed in the down turn. Your job if you are a player is that of a slave who gets to share in the treasure. Your job if your are not a player is that of a slave who gets RIF'd in the downturn.

The Box is filled with Treasure. The Box is filled with Fire. They are the same. Yin and Yang... you can't have the One without the Other.

Heard of Moore's Law? Moore's Law is the living embodiment of the Semi Cap business. Moore's Law happens because a bunch of Engineers slaving away in some obscure SCE companies make it happen. Its not an accident, and its not a Law of Nature. Its a result of the combined efforts of a small cadre of people, innovation, competition and a LOT of really hard work.

Treasure + Fire = Innovation. Moore's Law is the fundamental product of the Box.

I've been in the Box 14 years... much longer if you count all the training for a life in the Box. By now I have my share of Treasure, I have my share of Burns. This last downturn was the largest and longest in industry history. It was Ugly. The upturn is here... but something has changed. Profitability is low (by industry standards) and the stock still sucks. Industry leaders talk of industry "maturity" and "slow-or-no-growth" scenarios. The SCC is talking about expensing options. And the next downturn is already looming...

The Box is broken. There is no Treasure, and for players and non-players alike there is now only Fire. If the Box is not fixed, it will be unable to sustain its output. Moore's Law is at risk; not because of Technology limitations, but Business limitations.

So... you cannot have that view and be successful in this industry. So I'm taking my treasure in the form of time - 6 month unpaid leave. The goal - to do all the things I've wanted to do for these 14 years but never had a chance. Like write Blogs that probably no-one outside of a few of my friends will ever read. Like starting a small business. Like hiking and cycling and generally getting back into shape before its too late. If life in the SCE business teaches you nothing else, it sure as hell teaches you the irreplaceable value of time. So I do it because I can; maybe I'll go back, maybe I won't. For the first time in over a decade, my time belongs only to me.

I have escaped from the Box.